Thursday’s Nasdaq drop and Friday’s flat tape: what can be measured before the close

Filed Saturday 24 October 2026 in Asia, which was still Friday afternoon in New York. This is a note about measurement, not a signal.

One finished day, one unfinished day#

Thursday is usable. Reuters reported that the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.6%, its largest decline since 5 June. The same file said Meta fell 7%, its largest drop since July, after the company said it would issue a new class of shares to help raise funds; Lam Research fell 12% after results; Nvidia fell 4%; SpaceX fell 9%; and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 6.7%.

Friday is not usable as a daily return yet. Yahoo Finance’s live blog, updated at 2:45 p.m. New York time, had the Dow down 1.2%, the S&P 500 down 0.4% and the Nasdaq back below unchanged after semiconductors and large technology shares had sold off on Thursday. An earlier Reuters file, published at 2:01 p.m. New York time, had more precise index levels: the Dow at 52,241.55, down 1.18%; the S&P 500 at 7,629.92, down 0.43%; the Nasdaq Composite at 25,986.95, down 0.08%. Those are afternoon readings. The closing auction is a different number.

At the European close, which is earlier, Reuters had a third snapshot: the Dow down 1.02%, the S&P 500 down 0.21% and the Nasdaq up 0.16%. The sign on the Nasdaq flipped between files. That is normal in an open session and fatal to anyone who picks one screenshot and labels it “the close”.

What the afternoon file does support#

The 2:01 p.m. Reuters file does support a description of the mix, if it is dated to that file. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was up 0.6% on the day after Thursday’s drop. The S&P 500 technology sector was up 0.4%. The energy sector was up 2.4% and at a record high in that report. Consumer staples and financials were leading the declines. Declining issues led advancing issues by 1.97 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange and by 1.65 to 1 on the Nasdaq.

That is a split tape: a large index nearly unchanged, breadth negative, energy carrying the sector table. It is not evidence that “the AI trade recovered”. Yahoo Finance said Nvidia and AMD were edging higher in the afternoon, and that Friday’s earnings headliners SpaceX, Tesla and Meta had stabilised after Thursday. Stabilised, in an open session, means the second derivative looked calmer. It does not restore Thursday’s 2.6%.

The next observable, not a backtest#

Reuters said about one-third of S&P 500 companies report next week, led by Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon, with Intel, Sandisk, Eli Lilly, Exxon, Chevron and Caterpillar also on the calendar. The same newsroom said S&P 500 companies were on track for earnings growth of more than 32% in the third quarter, citing LSEG IBES. “On track” means the blend of reported and estimated results at that moment. It is not a finished quarter.

Kristina Hooper of Man Group told Reuters there was still fallout from questioning the AI trade, including the chance that next year’s data-centre spending ends up below what has been projected. That is a stated view, not a model output from this desk.

A calculation worth doing after the close, and not before, is the two-day log change in the Nasdaq from Wednesday’s close to Friday’s close, set next to Thursday’s 2.6% drop. If Friday really does finish near flat, Thursday remains almost the whole move. If Friday extends it, the story is a two-session drawdown. Writing the conclusion on Friday afternoon chooses the answer.

This is a description of published market readings. It is not a trading recommendation.