FEDS Paper: United States of U-Star — QuantCalc Tools Rate & Fee Analysis

FEDS Paper: United States of U-Star — QuantCalc Tools Rate & Fee Analysis (QuantCalc Tools Desk Note, 2026-10-31) — This briefing summarizes the supplied source material at https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/united-states-of-u-star.htm. Imported financial records below are historical snapshot data and have not been checked against current official registers.

Answer-First Summary: Hie Joo Ahn and Jeremy Rudd

This paper estimates state-level trend unemployment rates (trend U-star) based on the trend components of unemployment inflows and outflows across unemployment durations. The estimated trend U-stars, particularly the portions attributable to long-termunemployment, have levels and dynamics that vary substantially across states. Long-termunemployment makes a relatively small contribution to trend U-star in agricultural states, but takes a larger share for Rust Belt states and several states in the Sun Belt. While higher educational attainment and population aging put downward pressure on U-star, the effects of industrial structure and labor-market rigidities are mixed. Using the estimates of state-level trend U-star, we revisit previous work on state-level Phillips curves and find that the estimated slopes of forward-looking inflation equations are driven bymovements in trend U-star rather than by cyclical variation in the unemployment rate.

Imported Financial Source Snapshot (Not Independently Verified)#

The following fields are copied from an imported historical snapshot. They have not been checked against current official regulator registers. Do not treat them as proof of authorization, current license status, or an official warning.

• Levels (Levels Ltd) — Imported score: 1.7/10 | Imported risk field: unknown | Source license records: [No license record in this snapshot]

Core Analysis (QuantCalc Tools Rate & Fee Analysis)#

Hie Joo Ahn and Jeremy Rudd

This paper estimates state-level trend unemployment rates (trend U-star) based on the trend components of unemployment inflows and outflows across unemployment durations. The estimated trend U-stars, particularly the portions attributable to long-termunemployment, have levels and dynamics that vary substantially across states. Long-termunemployment makes a relatively small contribution to trend U-star in agricultural states, but takes a larger share for Rust Belt states and several states in the Sun Belt. While higher educational attainment and population aging put downward pressure on U-star, the effects of industrial structure and labor-market rigidities are mixed. Using the estimates of state-level trend U-star, we revisit previous work on state-level Phillips curves and find that the estimated slopes of forward-looking inflation equations are driven bymovements in trend U-star rather than by cyclical variation in the unemployment rate.

Imported Financial Source Snapshot (Not Independently Verified)#

The following fields are copied from an imported historical snapshot. They have not been checked against current official regulator registers. Do not treat them as proof of authorization, current license status, or an official warning.

• Levels (Levels Ltd) — Imported score: 1.7/10 | Imported risk field: unknown | Source license records: [No license record in this snapshot]

Key Quantitative & Regulatory Takeaways#

• Primary Subject: FEDS Paper: United States of U-Star
• Figures & Entities in Supplied Text: no source facts provided
• Provided Source: Source link

Structured Fact & Metric Comparison Table#

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)#

What are the exact figures and regulatory details reported in FEDS Paper: United States of U-Star?#

The supplied text states: Hie Joo Ahn and Jeremy Rudd

This paper estimates state-level trend unemployment rates (trend U-star) based on the trend components of unemployment inflows and outflows across unemployment durations. The estimated trend U-stars, particularly the portions attributable to long-termunemployment, have levels and dynamics that vary substantially across states. Long-termunemployment makes a relatively small contribution to trend U-star in agricultural states, but takes a larger share for Rust Belt states and several states in the Sun Belt. While higher educational attainment and population aging put downward pressure on U-star, the effects of industrial structure and labor-market rigidities are mixed. Using the estimates of state-level trend U-star, we revisit previous work on state-level Phillips curves and find that the estimated slopes of forward-looking inflation equations are driven bymovements in trend U-star rather than by cyclical variation in the unemployment rate.

Imported Financial Source Snapshot (Not Independently Verified)#

The following fields are copied from an imported historical snapshot. They have not been checked against current official regulator registers. Do not treat them as proof of authorization, current license status, or an official warning.

• Levels (Levels Ltd) — Imported score: 1.7/10 | Imported risk field: unknown | Source license records: [No license record in this snapshot]

Has QuantCalc Tools independently verified this tools data?#

No independent verification was performed by this rewrite step. The supplied source link is https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/united-states-of-u-star.htm.

Imported Financial Source Snapshot (Not Independently Verified)#

The following fields are copied from an imported historical snapshot. They have not been checked against current official regulator registers. Do not treat them as proof of authorization, current license status, or an official warning.

• Levels (Levels Ltd) — Imported score: 1.7/10 | Imported risk field: unknown | Source license records: [No license record in this snapshot]

Quantitative Verification & Analytical Model#