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Methods institutional intelligence, quantitative benchmarks, primary regulatory filings, and market structure analysis from QuantCalc Tools. A basis-point price is not a probability until you say what the alternative move is. For a 25-basis-point step, 21 basis points is not the same object as 2.
Curated by Elena Rostova, FRM, CQF (FRM, Certificate in Quantitative Finance (CQF)) · Fact-checked by QuantCalc Tools Institutional Review Board
A basis-point price is not a probability until you say what the alternative move is. For a 25-basis-point step, 21 basis points is not the same object as 2.
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Only if you force the outcomes to be unchanged or plus 25 basis points, and only if you treat MUFG’s “about 21” as exact. A cut, a 50-basis-point hike, or a different quote from another desk changes the answer.
Two divided by 25 is 0.08 under that same two-outcome assumption. The meeting can still surprise. The price, as MUFG reported it, is not where a hike lives.
No. MUFG reported a 5.2% drop in housing starts and a 7.3% drop in pending home sales as background. They are not probabilities and they do not convert into basis points without a model this note does not have.
